Young Australians are unlikely to end up worse off than their parents, but they're being slammed by financial roadblocks earlier in life, new research suggests.
Today's young Australians are unlikely to end up worse off than their parents, but they're being slammed by financial roadblocks early in life when they can least afford it, new research has found.
Income growth has slowed for younger Australians, tertiary education rates have more than doubled compared to their parents' generation, and they're entering into the property market later.
But research from independent think tank the e61 Institute has found young Australians' earnings will likely become stronger later in life, thanks to longer careers, chunkier super balances and larger inheritances from their parents.
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said there will be a focus on intergenerational equity in next month's federal budget.
But e61 principal economist Jack Buckley said the simple story of generational winners and losers "hides a more complex picture".
"The problem is not that younger Australians will end up poorer than their parents but that the fiscal system frontloads costs onto years when they can least afford them, including through the repayment of large HELP debts and forgoing 12 per cent of their pay through compulsory super contributions, right when many are trying to save for their first home and start a family," Buckley said.
The average inflation-adjusted income of a 35-year-old in 2023, around $90,000, is actually almost 80 per cent higher than the average 35-year-old in the late 1980s.
What's more, the median household income of a 35-year-old today is about $380,000, which is roughly in line with earlier generations at the same age.
Inheritance is likely to be the defining feature of inequality for the next generation of Aussies, with Baby Boomers expected to pass on a whopping $175 billion annually via their wills.
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"Older Australians are sitting on a windfall from rising asset prices, and most of that wealth will be passed down unevenly through inheritance," Buckley said.
"That inheritance boom will increase inequality within a generation in a way that's far more consequential than any gap between generations."
The e61 report says reforms pitched to remove stumbling blocks for young Australians, including an inheritance tax and removing capital gains tax exemptions on family homes, could prove more challenging than they're worth.
Instead, researchers believe a GST increase, which would act as a quasi-wealth tax, is the most practical option.
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"An increase in the GST would capture this windfall as it is spent down, without requiring complex new wealth assessment infrastructure," Buckley said.
"Paired with higher benefits for low-income households and income tax relief, it could tap this windfall while better supporting those on low incomes."
Australia's 10 per cent GST is lower than many consumption taxes in other comparable economies.
Ideally, productivity growth is the key to securing the financial future of the next generation, Buckley added.
"Behind all of these distributional questions sits a deeper issue: Australia's fiscal system was built for stronger productivity growth than we have now.
"The biggest thing we can do for younger Australians is embrace a pro-growth agenda."
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