Aussies just hours from learning likely fate on triple dose of rate hike pain

Tuesday, 28 April 2026 18:26

Australian borrowers are just hours away from receiving the clearest indication of whether an unwelcome third-straight interest rate rise will be handed down next week.

Borrowers are just hours away from receiving the clearest indication of whether an unwelcome third-straight interest rate rise will be handed down next week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will deliver the latest round of inflation figures tomorrow morning, including for the first quarter of the year and the individual month of March.

While the Reserve Bank has historically placed far greater emphasis on quarterly numbers, the monthly data will better capture the impact of fuel prices, which skyrocketed in the wake of the war in Iran.

While exact forecasts differ, economists are predicting inflation will surge to its highest level since 2023, with a headline figure of about 4.8 per cent – far higher than the RBA's target of 2-3 per cent.

"Headline inflation is set to rise sharply in March, driven by the surge in petrol prices following the outbreak of the Iran war," Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders wrote in the bank's CPI preview earlier this month.

"We expect a monthly increase of 1.1 per cent, lifting the annual rate to around 4.6 per cent.

"Fuel alone is likely to account for 0.9 percentage points of the monthly gain, with petrol prices at the pump rising by more than 30 per cent over the month."

While the RBA has already pulled the trigger on two hikes in as many meetings this year, and there are concerns about a slowing economy, its monetary policy board is expected to make it three from three when it meets next week.

All of the big four banks are expecting a third hike of the year next Tuesday – Westpac has even pencilled two further ones in June and August – and the market is pricing in a roughly three-quarters chance that the cash rate will be pushed back up to 4.35 per cent.

Michele Bullock gives a press conference, November 4, 2025.

And while there is a chance tomorrow's inflation read may dampen the case for a rate hike next week – and the roughly $91-a-month blow it would deliver average mortgage-holders – the nation's biggest bank says it would take something extraordinary to stay the RBA's hand.

"Quarterly CPI, released tomorrow, will make or break the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase its cash rate," CBA international economist Samara Hammoud said.

"Financial markets are currently pricing around a 78 per cent chance of a hike.

"There is a risk of a weaker outcome for underlying inflation than consensus.

"However, in our view, it would take a large downward surprise to materially pull down market pricing for a May hike."

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