A team of Aussie scientists say the clock is ticking, and it's time to prepare.
Massive and accelerating changes in Antarctica could have catastrophic consequences for Australia unless urgent action is taken, new research has found.
Scientists from the University of NSW and the Australian National University were part of an international team who said the climate-driven changes in Antarctica are not only connected, but accelerating.
Lead author Dr Nerilie Abram, chief scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division, said there was an urgent need to prepare for widespread impacts.
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"Rapid change has already been detected across Antarctica's ice, oceans and ecosystems – and this is set to worsen with every fraction of a degree of global warming," she said.
Co-author Professor Matthew England from UNSW said there were consequences for Australia.
"These include rising sea levels that will impact our coastal communities, a warmer and deoxygenated Southern Ocean that's less able to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – leading to more intense warming in Australia and beyond – and increased regional warming from Antarctic sea ice loss," he said.
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Dr Abram said the sudden loss of sea ice in the region had a range of knock-on effects.
"This includes making the floating ice shelves around Antarctica more susceptible to wave-driven collapse."
She warned the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) was at severe risk of collapse as global carbon dioxide levels continue to rise. This loss would raise sea levels by more than three metres, threatening coastal cities and communities worldwide.
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"Such a collapse would result in catastrophic consequences for generations to come," she said.
The loss of sea ice will also hit wildlife, with emperor penguins in particular facing a heightened risk of extinction.
The penguins rely on stable sea ice to raise their chicks, with losses to entire colonies already seen.
The researchers warned other species were also under threat, including krill, seals and several other penguin species. Tiny ocean plants that many animals depend on for food – phytoplankton – are also affected by warming and acidification.
Dr Abram said both sea ice loss and a slowdown in deep ocean circulation were already showing signs of being more sensitive to warming than previously thought.
"As sea ice is lost from the ocean surface, it is also changing the amount of solar heat being retained in the climate system. That is expected to worsen warming in the Antarctic region," Dr Abram said.
"Other changes to the continent could soon become unstoppable, including the loss of Antarctic ice shelves and vulnerable parts of the Antarctic ice sheet that they hold behind them."
Dr Abram says efforts through the Antarctic Treaty System to reduce pressure on ecosystems are important – but won't be enough on their own.
"The only way to avoid further abrupt changes and their far-reaching impacts is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to limit global warming to as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible," she said.
"Governments, businesses and communities will need to factor in these abrupt Antarctic changes that are being observed now into future planning for climate change impacts, including in Australia."
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