Aussies told to leave amid 'deteriorating security' in Middle East

The US has been assembling its greatest military firepower in the Middle East in decades amid negotiations with Iran and threats by President Donald Trump to its leadership.

The Australian government has told the partners and children of Australian officials in Israel and Lebanon to leave due to the "deteriorating security situation in the Middle East".

Australian civilians travelling through to or through some other countries in the region were also warned of possible airspace closures, flight cancellations and other travel disruptions, in a string of alerts tonight.

The exact source of the warnings wasn't detailed but the US has been assembling its greatest military firepower in the Middle East in decades amid negotiations with Iran and threats by President Donald Trump to its leadership.

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"The Australian Government has directed the departure of dependants of Australian officials posted to Israel in response to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East," the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade's Smartraveller service said.

"If you're in Israel, we continue to advise you consider leaving while commercial options to depart are still available. 

"The security situation in the Middle East is unpredictable. Regional tensions remain high and there continues to be a risk of military conflict."Conflicts in the Middle East could result in airspace closures, flight cancellations and other travel disruptions."

Identical advice was issued for Lebanon while the dependants of Australian officials posted to Jordan, Qatar and the UAE were offered voluntary repatriation.

Iranians are warily awaiting the next round of talks with the US in Geneva this week. Many see them as a last chance for the ruling theocracy to strike a deal with Trump.

Some say the situation feels hopeless. Battered by decades of sanctions, heightened by Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, Iranians also just suffered through the bloodiest crackdown on dissent in the country's modern history.

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As Iranians await the outcome of the Geneva negotiations, many fear the outbreak of a war that could surpass Iran's bloody 1980s conflict with Iraq.

That conflict sparked a patriotic response from Iranian volunteers. But now the prospects of a war with the US have riven a population that includes hard-line supporters of the theocracy and those who feel Iran is splitting at the seams, especially after it is still reeling from a devastating 12-day war with Israel in June and thousands of people killed and arrested during last month's protests.

Trump said at least 32,000 people were killed in the protests, which is at the further end of estimates over the death toll. 

The US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has so far counted more than 7000 dead and believes the death toll is far higher. Iran's government offered its only death toll on January 21, saying 3117 people were killed.

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"Every morning when I get up, my brain is full of chaos," said Sepideh Bafarani, a 29-year-old woman who works in a women's clothing store. 

"It's a possible war ... and an ongoing bad economic situation."

Rasool Razzaghi, a 54-year-old resident in the capital, Tehran, shared similar concerns ahead of the talks.

"I predict that if both sides really mean what they are saying, a war will start," he said.

Trump's 'armada' getting closer

For weeks, Trump has talked about an "armada" now largely in place off the coast of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. He has also sent the USS Gerald R Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, from the Caribbean toward the Mideast.

Overall, at least 16 US Navy ships will be assembled, according to a US Navy official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail sensitive military movements.

That's comparable to Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when American and British forces bombed Iraq for four days over Saddam Hussein's refusal to comply with UN Security Council resolutions about weapons inspections. There are hundreds of fighter jets and other support aircraft in the region necessary for launching a major attack on Iran.

Adding to that force, the US also moved 12 F-22 stealth fighter jets to a base in Israel on Tuesday, according to a US official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to detail sensitive military movements.

Meanwhile, the CIA published instructions in Farsi online on how Iranians can securely contact the spy agency.

Iranian state TV on Tuesday said the country's Revolutionary Guard held a drill that included launching missiles, flying drones and firing guns at targets along its coast, without elaborating on the exact time or place of the exercise.

"It's not an equal situation," a passerby told The Associated Press on Tuesday in Tehran, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals. 

"One side has entered the talks with a lot of power, it has lot of equipment. On the other hand, Iran is in a weak position. They want total surrender, but I think that's not viable."

- Reported with Associated Press

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